From SUSA (likely voters; 08/04 – 08/06; 7/14-7/16 in parens
Steve Beshear (D): 58 (59)
Ernie Fletcher (R-inc.): 37 (36)
MoE: ± 4%
Still a solid lead for Beshear, who currently is mopping the floor with Fletcher in all areas of the state:
In Western KY, Fletcher trails today by 8. In Eastern KY, Fletcher trails by 13. In North Central KY, Fletcher trails by 22. In greater Louisville, Fletcher trails by 34.
But wait, there’s a wrinkle in the poll: it oversamples Republicans, as Mark Hebert and Mark Nikolas (of the newly-resurrected Bluegrass Report) point out:
In the previous 30 Survey USA polls on Fletcher’s job approval, the average percentage of Republicans sampled was just 34.8% — and the previous general election match-up on Survey USA showed 37% Republican respondents. This means that Fletcher was barely able to tread water in this poll despite a 7 to 9 point advantage from oversampling Republicans. Very, very bad news.
I’d be quite surprised if this one didn’t tighten up in the months ahead, given what Mark describes as a utterly stenographic local media willing to carry Fletcher’s message, but that’s not a new challenge for any Democrat to face.
The races is probably already a lot closer than this, but a SurveyUSA poll isn’t likely to reflect it.
susa’s polls prior to the primary were right on the mark in ky and primaries are harder to poll than generals. these #s are probably very accurate.
the numbers should tighten before the election because the repubs will eventually return home to their candidate but in a majority democratic state like ky that won’t be nearly enough.
unless beshear makes a huge mistake, you can stick a fork in ernie, and i know many kentuckians will enjoy doing so.
the survey weights account for this. the percentages that get reported are weighted figures, which correct for the fact that Republicans were oversampled. SUSA likely oversampled Republicans because the race is so lop-sided they need enough Republicans to determine if this is really a trend rather than some anomaly from sampling error.